METHODOLOGY
The forecast and analytical study was conducted using the Delphi method, which involved three rounds of surveys with 543 leading Ukrainian scientists. This approach not only clarified existing scientific priorities but also identified new promising directions.
The survey procedure was based on methodological recommendations from the RAND Corporation, taking into account the experience of previous forecast and analytical studies conducted by the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, notably in 2004, 2006, and 2021. The Delphi method allows each expert to review anonymized responses from other participants, refine their evaluations, proposals, and arguments. The general stages of the survey are illustrated below:
The full methodology, approved by the Academic Council of the H.M. Dobrov Institute for Research on Scientific and Technological Potential and History of Science of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Protocol No. 17, December 23, 2024), can be downloaded at the following link:
Methodology for the Forecast and Analytical Study “Ukrainian Scientific and Technological Foresight”
This final version of the methodology includes descriptions of the procedures and data processing methods actually used during the study.
KEY FINDINGS
- Nine priority thematic clusters were analyzed, including digital technologies, nanotechnologies, biomedicine, climate change, food security, and socio-humanitarian sciences. The prospects for priority research directions within each cluster were assessed.
- Most scientists expressed a highly critical view of the state’s science and technology policy, considering it inadequate to meet contemporary challenges. Similarly, evaluations of the utilization of the country’s scientific and technical potential are disheartening, with efficiency rated at 40–50%, particularly in defense at 46%.
- Significant gaps were identified in personnel and material-technical support, which are critical for the future development of science. A further decline is projected, potentially leading to Ukraine losing its ability to not only develop its own advanced technologies but also effectively implement cutting-edge foreign technologies.
- Despite outdated infrastructure, the intellectual capacity of specialists remains high. This is a moment where numerous obstacles could serve as a catalyst for a strategic breakthrough.
The full report is available in PDF format at the following link: UkrSciTechForesight2024.pdf
ABOUT US
The public organization “Foresight. Institute for Political Economy” works to unite scientists, engineers, and student youth to create effective scientific, technological, and educational policies. The goal is to restore Ukraine as a technological leader of Eastern Europe, a country with a high level of education and modern scientific schools. We engage scientists and opinion leaders in collaboration for a better future. The foresight research method allows for systematic and timely assessment of the country's scientific and technological potential, determining priority directions for technological and socio-political development. The public organization “Foresight. Institute for Political Economy”, in cooperation with the Institute for the Study of Scientific and Technological Potential and the History of Science named after H. M. Dobrova of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, works on the project “Ukrainian Scientific and Technological Foresight” with the support of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's Representation in Ukraine.
CONTACTS
Organizational and Methodological Group
of the Forecast-Analytical Survey
“Ukrainian Scientific and Technological Foresight”
On scientific and methodological matters:
Oleksandr Serhiyovych Popovych, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Senior Researcher
opopovych@nas.gov.ua
+380 50 380 3836
On organizational matters:
Olena Petrivna Kostrytsia
kostritsa@nas.gov.ua
+380 95 118 9431
Public Organization
“Foresight. Institute for Political Economy”
Head of the Organization
Zakhar Oleksandrovych Popovych
+380 50 380 1035
zpopovych@foresight-institute.org
+1 504 312 8567 Telegram
Director of Communications
Aksinya Mykolayivna Kurina
press@foresight-institute.org
+380 66 748 8316 Telegram, WhatsApp
Social Networks
PARTNERS
The forecast-analytical survey “Ukrainian Scientific and Technological Foresight” is conducted pursuant to the directive of the Presidium of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of Scientific and Technological Potential and the History of Science named after H. M. Dobrov of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in collaboration with the public organization “Foresight. Institute for Political Economy” and with the support of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's Representation in Ukraine.
